Essex, Maryland 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

549
FXUS61 KLWX 201926
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
326 PM EDT Tue May 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will settle to the north today. A strong area of
low pressure will likely move across the region Wednesday into
Thursday, then move offshore at the end of the week. A weak area
of high pressure approaches the region by the weekend. Another
frontal system across the southern U.S. may impact the area
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A strong dome of high pressure (1042 mb) centered over Hudson
Bay extends southward across Ontario down into the Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic region. To the south of this broad
anticyclone is a wavy frontal system arcing along the spine of
the southern Appalachians across central Kentucky. Rather
tranquil weather is being observed locally although clouds have
continued to increase through the day. Ahead of a convective
complex brewing across central portions of the Ohio/Tennessee
valleys, mid to high clouds have continued to stream eastward
into the Mid-Atlantic states.

The overall air mass remains quite dry over the region with
aircraft soundings depicting around 0.50 inch precipitable water
values. Thus, it will take some moistening to get rainfall to
reach the ground later in the period. Until then, expect
continued cloud cover with high temperatures topping out in the
upper 60s to low 70s. Based on recent temperature trends, a few
spots along I-64 could reach 75 degrees by later this afternoon.

While light shower activity has begun to approach the Allegheny
Front, it is likely not reaching the ground given sizeable dew
point depressions. A bulk of the accumulating rains do not
arrive until early this evening. These warm advection aided
showers should overspread the entire area overnight. Some
embedded pockets of more moderate intensity rain unfold as
mesoscale impulses aloft track though from a larger scale
trough. Through the overnight period, up to an inch of rain is
possible over western Maryland. Given the signal and lowered
flash flood guidance due to last week`s flooding event, have
hoisted up Flood Watches starting at 5 AM for these areas.

Underneath low clouds, widespread rain, and steady southeasterly
winds, tonight`s low temperatures will fall into the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As mentioned, Flood Watches will be in effect across far western
Maryland (Garrett and Allegany), while extending down into
Mineral and western Grant counties. These continue from 5 AM
Wednesday through late Wednesday night. Additionally, also given
past history over the northern Blue Ridge Mountains, a Flood
Watch is in effect for this area from 5 AM to 11 PM Wednesday.
However, the signal is much stronger for heavier rainfall across
the former watch area where 2 to 3 inches of rain are possible.

The culprit is a more defined upper low/trough which is set to
track from the Ohio Valley toward the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday
afternoon/evening. Increasing lift with this trough coupled with
anomalous moisture and local orographics should all play a role
in locally heavier rainfall in this area. The most robust of the
12Z high-resolution model suite (i.e., HREF) would support
closer to 4 inches of rain. With 6-hour flash flood guidance
values in the 1 to 2 inches in many spots, some risk of flooding
is possible. The more vulnerable locations could even take less
rainfall to see some hydrologic impacts. While overall forecast
amounts are lower over the northern Blue Ridge, many locations
still recovering could see additional impacts with this system.

For the rest of the forecast area, a soaking rain overspreads
the region which will hopefully alleviate the ongoing drought
issues. With strong high pressure to the north and a wavy
frontal zone over the Carolinas, the region remains wedged in
within a cold air damming (CAD) setup. As a result, a very
stable profile sets up which should mitigate overall
thunderstorm chances. There are a couple of current exceptions
which would include the I-64 corridor where some storms could
bleed into the area. Additionally, strong forcing with the upper
low and occluded frontal system may lead to isolated lightning
strikes in western Maryland.

Temperatures on Wednesday should stay well below average with
highs in the upper 50s to 60s (slightly cooler in the
mountains). This comes with thick low clouds and east-
southeasterly gusts up to 20 to 25 mph, especially east of the
Blue Ridge and Catoctins. Rain continues off and on into the
overnight hours which will favor a low diurnal temperature
range. For Wednesday night, expect lows in the mid/upper 40s in
the mountains to 50s elsewhere. As mentioned, there may be some
breaks in the action as focus shifts toward a developing wave of
low pressure near the Virginia Tidewater region. This would
support some dry slot over the area as the energy transfer
unfolds.

As the upstream upper low wobbles eastward, the associated
embedded shortwaves will pass overhead on Thursday. The biggest
difference between the two days will be much less moisture
availability as precipitable water values drop to below an inch.
As a result, total rainfall amounts should be lower, generally
averaging between 0.20 to 0.40 inches. The atmosphere should be
more unstable as the CAD wedge will have eroded. Thus, expect
isolated thunderstorms to pop up during Thursday afternoon to
evening, especially in areas that can see some sunshine.
Forecast highs will mainly be in the 60s, but expect 50s in the
mountains and low/mid 70s along and east of I-95. This also
comes with a shift in winds given low pressure to the east.
Mainly west to northwesterly winds are expected with gusts up to
20 to 25 mph, locally up to 35 mph along the Allegheny ridges.

Conditions gradually dry out through the night with even some
breaks in the cloud cover. Forecast lows drop into the mid 40s
to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A broad upper low will continue to circulate to our north over the
Northeast and Southern Canada into next weekend. That will place us
within west to northwesterly flow both at the surface and aloft for
Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Over time, drier air should gradually
start to work into the upper low`s circulation. The majority of the
day Friday is expected to stay dry, but an uptick in both cloud
cover and areal coverage of showers will occur during the afternoon
in response to daytime heating and resultant destabilization. Lesser
coverage of both clouds and showers are expected on Saturday,
although a stray afternoon shower still can`t be ruled out. Chances
for afternoon showers will decrease even further by Sunday. Spread
in model guidance increases drastically by Monday, with some
solutions showing dry conditions and other solutions moving rain
back into the area.

Northwesterly flow should lead to below normal temperatures (highs
in the 60s, lows in the 40s to low 50s) on Friday and Saturday.
Temperatures may begin to slowly trend upward by Sunday and Monday,
with highs likely reaching into the low-mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
While conditions will initially be VFR through this evening,
expect ceilings to drop overnight as a soaking rain overspreads
the entire region. Consequently, ceilings drop to IFR after
midnight and remain that way throughout Wednesday. At times,
visibility could also begin to near IFR within the moderate to
heavy downpours. This also comes with increase east-
southeasterly winds which will begin gusting to around 20 knots
by late Wednesday morning. Such wind fields persist through the
afternoon to early evening hours. Restrictions hold in place for
all terminals into Wednesday night, some potentially falling to
LIFR at times.

As low pressure forms to the east near the Virginia coastline,
winds shift over to west-northwesterly on Thursday. Additional
restrictions are possible as well as more showers pass through
the area. However, do expect more breaks in the action, but with
isolated thunderstorms possible during Thursday afternoon to
evening. Continued west-northwesterly winds should gradually dry
things out into Thursday night. Depending on how much low-level
moisture is left, some return to VFR conditions is possible.

VFR conditions look probably to prevail Friday into the weekend in
post frontal northwest flow. Could see gusts around 20 knots Friday
morning into Friday afternoon. Scattered showers during the day
Friday could result in brief periods of sub-VFR conditions. These
showers come to an end Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds are staying below advisory thresholds through the rest of
the day into tonight. However, expect a ramp up in wind fields
as east-southeasterlies increase through the day on Wednesday.
Consequently, Small Craft Advisories are in place for all waters
for much of Wednesday. These should taper off some into
Wednesday night, although these advisories may need to be
extended across portions of the waterways.

As low pressure passes by to the east, winds shift to mainly
west-northwesterly on Thursday. These come with continued
shower chances, but as not continuous and concentrated as
Wednesday. Isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out during the
afternoon/evening hours. Outside of any such storm, winds
should stay below advisory levels.

SCA conditions possible across all the waters through most of the
day on Friday, then winds diminish Friday night into the rest of
Memorial Day weekend.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
By this evening, the combination of strong high pressure to the
north over Ontario with low pressure passing through to the
south, winds will shift to easterly while strengthening in time.
During a 36-hour period stretching from tonight through
Thursday morning, there will be an increasing threat for Minor
tidal flooding at the more sensitive locations. In particular,
this would include Annapolis where the Steven`s ensembles show
an outside chance of Moderate flooding. Water levels eventually
drop off on Thursday as winds shift to northwesterly.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for
     MDZ008.
     Flood Watch from late tonight through late Wednesday night for
     MDZ501-502-509-510.
VA...Flood Watch from late tonight through Wednesday evening for
     VAZ507.
WV...Flood Watch from late tonight through late Wednesday night for
     WVZ501-503-504.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for
     ANZ530>533-535-536-538>542.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for
     ANZ534-537-543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BRO
NEAR TERM...BRO
SHORT TERM...BRO
LONG TERM...KJP
AVIATION...BRO/KRR
MARINE...BRO/KRR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX